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By PATRICK YOUNG
Newhouse News Service
    PITTSBURGH - The factory of the future is being shaped here today.
And it belongs to robots.
    At Carnegie-Mellon University, researchers from the school's
Robotics Institute are installing a computer-controlled robot that
will operate two automated cutting machines and a laser measuring
device.
    The robot - actually a large metal arm - is designed to place and
precisely align a piece of metal in one cutting machine, which will
begin fabricating a blade for an electric turbine.
    Then the robot will remove the partially finished blade and place it
in the quality-control laser, whose light beam will ensure the blade
has been properly shaped. Finally, the robot will align the blade in
the second machine for further work and return it to the laser for
another inspection.
    All this without human intervention.
    It is, admittedly, a humble beginning to a grand dream. But from
such efforts may come huge factories run by a few humans and many
robots.
    The robots envisioned here are not the cute and cuddly androids of
''Star Wars.'' They are, however, extraordinarily sophisticated,
computerized machines.
    For example, researchers talk of the day when an engineer will be
able to design a part using a computer and video display tube. Then,
with a touch of a button, the design will be transferred to a robot.
The robot will fabricate the part, cutting, shaping, inspecting and
approving the final product before releasing it.
    ''A robot to us is sensing, thinking and acting,'' says Daniel Berg,
Carnegie-Mellon's dean of science. ''Our kind of robots can 'sense.'
They have the ability to acquire information from the environment.
With artificial intelligence, they can tell what has to be done next.
And then they act.''
    About 4,000 relatively simple robots are already at work in U.S.
factories - welding, spray painting, moving materials from one place
to another, even sorting parts. The Japanese use triple that number.
    ''The latest Japanese auto plants are essentially unmanned except by
engineers,'' says one scientist here.
    That helps explain why the United States is rushing into what has
been called ''the race for the robots.'' The machines are seen by
many business leaders as vital to increasing the productivity of
industry so American goods can meet and surpass foreign competitors
in world markets.
    They are also seen as the way to free workers from hazardous,
unhealthy or dirty jobs, such as underground mining.
    ''Our goal is to make intelligent robots that will improve the
quality of life,'' says Angel Jordan, dean of engineering.
    Yet widespread use of robots will have major social implications, as
well as technological and economic impact.
    Some people worry robots will sharply increase industrial
unemployment and worsen the quality of working life for those who
remain employed. One estimate sees robots replacing up to 75 percent
of the nation's factory workers.
    ''Robots are going to put people out of work,'' admits Robert Ayers,
professor of engineering and public policy. ''There are 8 million
machine operators in the manufacturing sector. In the next 30 or 40
years, robots will replace most of these people.''
    But Ayers and others argue that robots will actually increase the
total number of jobs available. Not automating will be worse, they
say, because productivity will continue to fall and with it, the
nation's ability to compete.
    ''You can measure the number of people who are unemployed because we
automated or look at the number of people who are unemployed because
we didn't automate,'' says Mark Fox, a computer scientist.
    ''If we automate, we increase our productivity, output and balance
of payments. True, some people will lose jobs, but they can move to
others. If we don't automate, everyone loses, including the country.''
    Berg sees another need for robots. The nation's population is aging
and the past two decades have seen a sharply declining birth rate.
    He says, ''Most thoughtful people in management, labor and
government sense that because of the declining birth rate, we are
really going to have a labor shortage by 1985.''
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Young - WASHINGTON X X X by 1985.''
    The new Robotics Institute is one of several research centers
developing robots for industrial use.
    It draws its experts primarily from the mechanical, electrical
engineering and computer sciences departments. Research includes
robots for space, coal mining, underwater oil-rig work and deep-sea
mining.
    But the major focus is the factory of the future. Westinghouse
Electric Corp. is backing the project with $1 million a year, for up
to five years.
    In industry today, certain plants are extremely flexible but not
very productive. Others, automated for mass production, tend to be
productive but inflexible.
    The aim is a group of machines that are highly productive and
flexible.
    Researchers envision rows of machines that fabricate parts, inspect
their own work, correct errors or reject unsuitable pieces, sort and
assemble the parts into the final products, and package them.
    Moreover, these robots will switch from making one item to another
without expensive and extensive retooling.
    ''One shouldn't expect to see a machine that changes from light
bulbs to Sherman tanks,'' says Paul Wright, assistant professor of
mechanical engineering. ''One should see a factory that can produce a
wide variety of products within the same family, and do this
rapidly.''
    But such a plant must await many technological developments. ''We
have to build the bridges between today and tomorrow,'' says Raj
Reddy, the institute's director.
    For example, the robots envisioned here must be able to ''see'' -
that is, use a computer program and a television camera to recognize
various items by their shapes. They also must be able to ''feel'' -
recognize by pressure gauges just how much pressure to apply to an
item. The pressure needed to grasp and lift an iron ball would crush
an egg.
    And there is the problem of integrating the robots and the
information they can provide managers into a smoothly running
operation.
    Working out all these problems will take time. But as solutions
come, they will find their way into factories and plants.
    ''We're talking with Westinghouse about getting some things into use
next year,'' Berg says.
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